The conference on Europe is the next step to the United States of Europe?

The conference on Europe is the next step to the United States of Europe?

by Cesare Sacchetti

A document drafted by France and Germany is circulating in these weeks in the European chancelleries.

The paper is called “The conference on the Future of Europe” and resembles a sort of road-map outlining the future of the European continent.

Once again the French-German axis who heavily sways the European Union took the initiative without involving the other European partners.

The document raised some eyebrows in Europe, considering the growing skepticism coming especially from the Eastern European bloc toward Emmanuel Macron. 

Basically, France and Germany proposed a timeline for this conference, whose main goal should be to lead Europe toward the path of a more integrated political project.

Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, was certainly the inspirer of this event when the last July  he announced the proposal of this conference before the Special European Council.

In that occasion the French president had proposed also to assign the presidency of this meeting to Guy Verhofstadt, known to be an ardent supporter of the European federalist project, namely the United States of Europe.

It is not by chance that the United States of Europe was even the subject of a book authored by Mr. Verhofstadt in 2006, two years before the financial world crisis.

According to this idea, the only way to definitely stabilize the European Union is through the realization of a supranational European government, which would overcome the power of the single European states.

But this new political entity would be swayed eventually by the French-German axis, leaving little room to the other members of the EU.

France and Germany consolidated their alliance recently with the signing of the new Aachen treaty last February, which could result in a ever integrated foreign policy of the two countries to the point of creating a united seat at the United Nations security council.

Despite the latest tensions arising between Paris and Berlin, the French-German alliance appears to still be the driving force of the European political arena.

However there’s a new strike of balance between the two countries.

During the last years, the French-German alliance was heavily swayed in favor of Berlin, while in this phase the balance of power is shifting towards Paris.

Emmanuel Macron has certainly gained momentum in the political equilibriums of Europe. 

The latest EU appointments had been doubtlessly the result of the agreements reached by the French president the last July during the EU Council.

Despite her previous assignment in the German government as minister of Defence, Ursula Von der Leyen, the new EU commission president, is considered to be closer to Emmanuel Macron rather than Angela Merkel.

Christine Lagarde, the new French ECB governor, has recently stated that the European macroeconomic policies must move from an export-led model to the growth of public investments.

Ms. Lagarde’s statements matched the recommendations made by Macron in the last years to abandon the strict EU austerity policies.

The message was clearly directed to Berlin, which was deaf so far to any demand of adopting a new economic model.

However, Angela Merkel doesn’t have the same strong legitimacy which she had during the last years.

The latest SPD elections were won by Norbert Walter-Borjans, a former minister in the regional state of North Rhine-Westphalia, and  Saskia Esken, an MP from Baden-Württemberg, who are both the main leaders of the radical wing of the party.

They are both critics of the austerity policies pursued by the government coalition so far, and this is certainly a game-changer for the German chancellery.

Actually Ms. Merkel has two alternatives before her . 

The first option is based upon the rejection of any change of the governmental economic policies. 

By choosing this scenario, the German chancellor would probably trigger a government crisis with his main ally which would result in a snap election.

The second option would result in an acceptance of SPD’S radical wing demands, but in this case Angela Merkel’s stance in the government would be weaker than ever.

In both cases, the real winner of Ms. Merkel’s weakness is clearly Emmanuel Macron.

Macron has gained momentum particularly when his German counterpart has lost his political leadership in the French-German alliance.

Actually the real adversary for Washington is certainly the French president rather than Angela Merkel.

Whether Mr. Trump were trying to thwart the globalist leaning project of the United Stated of Europe, he would surely must engage in a geopolitical struggle against France.

And this is what happening in this moment, after the Trump’s administration proposal to raise 100% tariffs on French goods.

If Trump’s intentions are to sink the Paris-German alliance, he must fight harder against the French side of the alliance.